A cheerful billboard on the highway connecting Toronto and New York this summer proclaimed, “Buffalo Loves Canada,” accompanied by a $500 gift card giveaway, aimed at welcoming back Canadian visitors.
However, despite initial interest with over 1,000 entries, the expected summer influx of Canadian tourists failed to materialize, according to Patrick Kaler, CEO of Visit Buffalo Niagara.
This situation in Buffalo mirrors a broader decline in international tourism across the U.S., raising concerns among travel analysts about a potentially prolonged downturn affecting destinations from border towns to major cities like Las Vegas and Los Angeles.
Experts and local officials suggest this trend, which began in February, is linked to the policies and rhetoric associated with the current administration. Tariffs, stricter immigration enforcement, and comments about acquiring Canada and Greenland have seemingly alienated international travelers.
“To see the traffic drop off so significantly, especially because of rhetoric that can be changed, is so disheartening,” said Kaler.
PHOTOS: A downturn in international travel to the U.S. may last beyond summer, experts warn
The World Travel & Tourism Council had predicted that the U.S. would be the only country among 184 studied to experience a decrease in foreign visitor spending in 2025, signaling a decline in the country’s global appeal.
Julia Simpson, the council’s president and CEO, stated, “The world’s biggest travel and tourism economy is heading in the wrong direction. While other nations are rolling out the welcome mat, the U.S. government is putting up the ‘closed’ sign.”
Tourism Economics revised its forecast to an 8.2% decrease in international arrivals for 2025, an improvement from an earlier 9.4% prediction, but still significantly below pre-pandemic levels.
The firm attributed the decline to “sentiment drag,” noting that airline bookings point to a continued slowdown in inbound travel, echoing trends seen in May, June, and July.
Deborah Friedland of Eisner Advisory Group highlighted rising travel costs, political uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions as contributing factors to the challenges faced by the U.S. travel industry.
Since returning to office, the administration has reinforced hard-line policies, including the revival of travel bans targeting specific countries, stricter visa rules, and increased immigration raids. The imposition of tariffs on foreign goods has further contributed to a perception of the U.S. as unwelcoming.
“Perception is reality,” Friedland said.
The International Lindy Hop Championships organizers postponed their New York City event due to concerns about America’s perceived hostility towards foreigners. Tena Morales, the event co-producer, noted that international competitors, who typically comprise half of the attendees, felt unwelcome.
Organizers are considering relocating the annual competition to another country until the end of the current administration.
“The climate is still the same and what we’re hearing is still the same, that (dancers) don’t want to come here,” she said.
Washington, D.C., has also experienced a decline in international visitors, with local tourism officials projecting a 5.1% decrease for the year. Destination DC plans a campaign to counter negative perceptions by showcasing the city’s personal side and featuring its residents.
U.S. government data confirms the overall decrease in international arrivals during the first seven months of the year. Overseas visitors, excluding those from Mexico and Canada, decreased by over 3 million, a 1.6% decline compared to the previous year, according to the National Travel and Tourism Office.
Western Europe saw a 2.3% decrease in visitors, with notable declines from Denmark (19%), Germany (10%), and France (6.6%). Similar trends were observed in Asia, with double-digit decreases in arrivals from Hong Kong, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Fewer residents from African countries also traveled to the U.S.
However, some countries, including Argentina, Brazil, Italy, and Japan, have seen an increase in visitors.
Not all U.S. destinations experienced a decline in tourism this summer.
Door Peninsula in eastern Wisconsin benefited from loyal Midwest visitors, resulting in a strong summer for local businesses, according to Jon Jarosh of Destination Door County. Business owners reported increased foot traffic and packed restaurants by midsummer.
Major U.S. airlines reported that bookings for premium airfares helped fill international flights, and domestic flight demand was recovering after a slow start to the year.
The Federal Aviation Administration anticipated the busiest Labor Day weekend in 15 years, with U.S. airline bookings up 2% compared to the previous year, according to Cirium.
Despite these positive trends, the absence of foreign visitors in Buffalo remained noticeable, according to Kaler of Visit Buffalo Niagara.
Canada, the leading source of visitors to the U.S. with over 20.2 million last year, has shown the greatest reluctance to visit this year.
Statistics Canada reported that more U.S. residents drove into Canada in June and July than Canadians entering the U.S., a trend not seen in nearly two decades, excluding pandemic-affected months.
In July alone, the number of Canadian residents returning from the U.S. by car decreased by 37% compared to the previous year, while return trips by plane fell by 26%, according to the agency.
Visit Buffalo Niagara responded by shifting its marketing efforts to cities like Boston, Philadelphia, and Chicago. Amateur children’s sporting events also helped offset the decline in Canadian tourists.
“We will always welcome Canadians back when the time is right,” Kaler said. “I don’t want Canadians to feel like we see them as just dollar signs or a transaction at our cash registers. They mean more to us that that.”